How Walmart, Target & Tariffs Are Shaking Up Prime Day Week

What It Means for Shoppers and Retailers

For shoppers, these competitive sales events mean broader access to meaningful deals: no membership required. They also offer more flexibility through online, in-store, and curbside pickup options. Most importantly, the discounts will be on par with Prime Day, especially in essential categories like school and home, giving budget-conscious shoppers multiple avenues to save.

For retailers, this marks another round in the battle for market share. Target and Walmart are using inclusive pricing and convenience to earn customer loyalty during a high-traffic window. Target, in particular, is leveraging its free Circle membership and premium Circle 360 tier to drive engagement and upsell shoppers into its broader ecosystem. 

At a brand level, both retailers are reshaping consumer perception, proving that the best summer deals aren’t limited to Prime, and that value, speed, and flexibility can be found elsewhere. Yet, inventory will be stretched thin for those selling across platforms, prompting brands and retailers to make a tough decision: participate in one event to ensure inventory or try for all and risk out-of-stocks?

Our Predictions 

Here’s how we expect things to play out as Walmart, Target, and Amazon go head-to-head this July.

1. AI shopping assistants like Amazon’s Rufus, Walmart’s Sparky, and Target’s Bullseye Gift Finder will play a key role in how consumers navigate these sales events, but not necessarily in the way brands might expect. Rather than helping shoppers decide what to buy, these tools will be used primarily to validate purchases: comparing reviews, summarizing product quality, and confirming that the item is worth the cost. In a landscape where shoppers are wary of overpaying, AI will serve as a justification engine more than a discovery tool.
2. Amazon will still capture the lion’s share of sales, but Walmart is inching closer to real market share gains, thanks to a combination of scaled marketplace operations, aggressive pricing, and improved e-commerce infrastructure. While its physical stores and curbside pickup options are expected to see an increase, much of Walmart’s growth this year will also come from online sales, as the company continues to expand its marketplace footprint and invest in fulfillment capabilities. Target will also see a strong showing, particularly among loyal Circle members, but may not match Walmart’s scale in volume. 
3. This year’s summer sales window will mark the unofficial start to Q4 and holiday shopping, but with a more cautious tone. Ongoing geopolitical instability, including tensions in Israel and Iran, combined with economic uncertainty, inflation fatigue, and tariff volatility, are making many consumers hesitant to spend freely. As a result, we predict overall growth to be muted, with Prime Day sales rising just around 5% year over year. Rather than going all-in on discretionary purchases, shoppers are being more selective, tilting their spend slightly toward holiday gifts and essentials to get ahead of potential price hikes or shipping issues later in the year. Retailers and brands should anticipate early traction in high-demand categories like toys, apparel, and electronics, not just for back-to-school, but for Q4 preparedness as well.

With multiple sales events overlapping, consumers will shop more deliberately, choosing not to stick with one retailer, but to comparison-shop across Amazon, Walmart, and Target, going back and forth between platforms to evaluate prices, product quality, and delivery options. AI tools like Sparky, Rufus, and Bullseye will support that behavior, helping shoppers make confident decisions based on real-time data and personalized insights.